Analysis of Waste Management Policy in Campania (Italy): a System Dynamics approach

Resumen: The waste crisis in Campania is a clear example of a complex system since it involves multiple dimensions that affect each other in a dynamic manner and cannot be described from an isolated and static perspective. This paper is focused on the waste crisis in Campania taking into account all the factors involved, including demographic, technological, social, environmental and economic issues. A system dynamics model, developed in Di Nola (2012), is used as a policy laboratory to simulate the behaviour of the waste management system under alternative scenarios and evaluate the effects of each of them. Four different policy scenarios are tested: the Business as Usual (BAU) scenario is compared to the Emergency Waste Plan (EWP) approved by the national government, the Regional Waste Plan (RWP) approved by the regional government and a Recycling Implementation Plan (RIP). The main objective of this policy scenario analysis is to highlight the intended effects of different waste policies as well as their unexpected outcomes. The analysis allows keeping track of the evolution of a hidden flow of waste that has not been treated in the regional infrastructures and that has been alternatively managed, as well as the evolution of the RDF accumulated over the region. The total costs of waste management are also evaluated as well as the CO2 emissions and their relative damage costs.